Description

This analysis provides a forecast of KAS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-20 0.096504 0.107809 0.119524 0.132542 0.146573 0.161211 0.177607
2024-10-27 0.077418 0.093920 0.112023 0.133223 0.157232 0.183446 0.214092
2024-11-03 0.068922 0.089725 0.113663 0.142913 0.177348 0.216265 0.263226
2024-11-10 0.057732 0.080552 0.108049 0.143008 0.185641 0.235318 0.296930
2024-11-17 0.050026 0.074369 0.104939 0.145177 0.195738 0.256176 0.332831
2024-11-24 0.043122 0.068190 0.100943 0.145470 0.202972 0.273290 0.364256
2024-12-01 0.040413 0.067184 0.103286 0.153617 0.219989 0.302560 0.410952
2024-12-08 0.038117 0.066394 0.105651 0.161644 0.236866 0.331869 0.458179
2024-12-15 0.033885 0.062249 0.102937 0.162445 0.244022 0.348730 0.489838
2024-12-22 0.029069 0.056633 0.097606 0.159155 0.245331 0.357805 0.511488
2024-12-29 0.027360 0.055680 0.098886 0.165047 0.259080 0.383248 0.554543
2025-01-05 0.025315 0.053933 0.098787 0.168831 0.269894 0.404912 0.592951
2025-01-12 0.022958 0.051569 0.097816 0.171638 0.279945 0.426499 0.632721
2025-01-19 0.020660 0.049063 0.096461 0.173829 0.289253 0.447428 0.672275
2025-01-26 0.020592 0.050617 0.101705 0.186225 0.313581 0.489418 0.740864
2025-02-02 0.018273 0.047638 0.099272 0.186622 0.320412 0.507399 0.777377
2025-02-09 0.016618 0.045722 0.098433 0.189383 0.330692 0.530279 0.820847
2025-02-16 0.014776 0.043156 0.096240 0.189794 0.337364 0.548112 0.857588
2025-02-23 0.014505 0.043876 0.099855 0.199712 0.358577 0.586873 0.923738
2025-03-02 0.014217 0.044515 0.103319 0.209444 0.379669 0.625739 0.990492
2025-03-09 0.012819 0.042439 0.101625 0.210419 0.387171 0.645032 1.029972
2025-03-16 0.010980 0.039030 0.097156 0.206439 0.386764 0.652760 1.053211
2025-03-23 0.010557 0.039013 0.099147 0.213568 0.403913 0.686311 1.113322